Growth is expected to continue, but at a more moderate pace in the coming years. At the same time, consumer confidence is declining, even though it rose in November-December 2025.
Several factors explain these trends.
Solid population growth, slightly slowed
According to the Florida TaxWatch research institute, the state could welcome 2.4 million additional residents over the next eight years. This represents solid growth, similar to that seen before the pandemic, with 702 arrivals per day in 2034, compared to 922 per day currently.
Florida employment
The unemployment rate is expected to rise in 2026-2027 to 4.5% (compared to 4% in 2025), but analysts estimate that it should fall back and stabilize around 4.1% in 2034. Last summer, there were more unemployed people than job openings. The report found 0.9 job openings for every unemployed worker in July.
However, total employment is expected to continue to grow slowly but steadily, from 10 million currently to 10.8 million in the 2030s.
Economy and income
The state’s economy is worth $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025, growing at +2.3%, driven by tourism, real estate, and commerce. According to Florida TaxWatch, growth is expected to slow in the coming years, stabilizing at around +1.9%.
According to Jui Shah, an economist at Florida TaxWatch, “Florida is still growing but the forecast expects the state to shift from the post-pandemic sprint to a more sustainable jog, shaped by easing (but still present) economic uncertainty and a cooling pace of in-migration.”
Floridians’ incomes are still expected to grow by about +5% through 2034, which will improve their purchasing power if inflation remains low, as it is currently.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area was +2.6% between December 2024 and December 2025 (+2.7% nationally); and +3% for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater for the same period.
In Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, the consumer goods categories that grew the most were fashion (+7.9%), medical care (+3.9%), and food (+3.9%).
For the tourism industry, while forecasts for 2026 point to a slowdown with only +0.8% growth, it should consolidate in the long term and return to pre-pandemic levels in the coming years. In 2024, 143 million visitors spent $135 billion in the local economy, supporting 1.8 million direct jobs.
Florida Consumer Confidence Index
This index, which can vary between 2 and 150, is the result of calibrated telephone surveys conducted and monitored by the University of Florida. They assess Floridians’ confidence in their own economic situation, as well as in the state’s current and future economic situation.
However, in 2025, Florida’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) lost 12 points, falling from 89.9 points in December 2024 to 74.9 points in December 2025. This can be explained in part by the fact that 2024 was an election year and therefore full of promise and enthusiasm in the state, followed by a return to a more normal CCI level.
Hector H. Sandoval, director of the economic analysis program at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, explains: « The evolution of sentiment
throughout 2025 is not surprising given the significant policy changes introduced by the new administration,
which added uncertainty for economic agents, particularly with respect to trade policy. »
Other notable developments include federal workforce reductions, the longest federal government shutdown of the year—which disrupted data collection—a weak labor market characterized by limited hiring and layoffs, and persistent inflationary pressures.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, reducing borrowing costs for all economic agents. Together, these factors had a significant impact on Florida consumers’ confidence and economic outlook.
The year still ended on a positive note
Florida consumer confidence rose in December 2025, gaining 2.4 points to reach 74.9, up from 72.5 in November.
This index measures five criteria, and the representative Floridians surveyed responded positively in four categories: perceptions of their personal financial situation compared to last year increased by 3.9 points; expectations regarding their personal financial situation one year from now increased by 3.2 points; expectations regarding national economic conditions for the coming year increased by 1.1 points; expectations for U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased by 3.9 points, representing one of the strongest gains for the December index. On the other hand, respondents do not believe this is a good time to make a major purchase (appliances, furniture), with an index of only 62, down -0.4 points.
In general, differences of opinion can also be identified among the various socioeconomic groups surveyed: men and people earning more than $50,000 per year are generally more optimistic, while women, people aged 60 and over, and those with an annual income of less than $50,000 express less favorable opinions.
The study was conducted from November 1 to December 19, 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, Sandoval explains, « several challenges remain. Looking ahead, it will be important to continue monitoring inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target, as well as labor market conditions, as both will influence the Fed’s future policy decisions. Tracking consumer sentiment will help assess how Floridians perceive their financial situation and the broader economy as we move into 2026. »
