The Florida housing market is very mixed right now; let’s try to make sense of it.
Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors, confirms that Florida remains an attractive market for buyers, but high prices have slowed the wave of migration within the United States. The desire to move to the Sunshine State is still very much alive, but enthusiasm has been dampened by prices.
Certain metropolitan areas are becoming more affordable and attractive, particularly Jacksonville, Ocala, Orlando, Tampa, and Port St. Lucie. The rise in inventory is forcing sellers to adjust their prices. According to Amber Strong of eXp Realty in Jacksonville: “We’re seeing a lot of price adjustments, and once a property reaches its fair market value, it goes under contract.”
Impact of New Construction
According to O’Connor, the areas experiencing the sharpest price declines are those where new construction is competing heavily with existing homes, offering buyers more options. Nationwide, new homes are selling for $53,000 more than older ones.
For example, in Lakeland in 2025, 58% of home sales are new construction, with new homes selling for slightly more than older ones (+$28,000).
In Pensacola, Jacksonville, North Port, and Cape Coral, new homes account for more than 30% of total sales and sell for prices that vary relative to existing homes depending on the city. In Cape Coral, new homes sell for $20,000 less than the median price; in Pensacola, they sell for $34,000 more. It’s not easy to make sense of this, and it’s advisable to work with a local agent to understand the nuances of each market.
Inventory Levels
Unsurprisingly, Ocala and Orlando continue to have a large inventory of homes for sale—far more than before the 2019 pandemic—and this inventory has been rising in recent months.
The July 2026 Mortgage Monitor, compiled by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) Mortgage Technology, highlights the differences from one city to another: all Florida metropolitan areas, except Miami, have higher inventory levels than in 2017–2019, before the pandemic.
This is particularly true for Lakeland (+69%) and Orlando (+40%). Tampa’s housing inventory is currently 30% higher than before the pandemic, and about 20% higher in Cape Coral and North Port. Jacksonville has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, while Miami is slightly below them.
Household Confidence on the Decline
According to the University of Florida study, all five components of the consumer confidence index declined throughout the first quarter of 2026. The index has fallen by eight points over the past four months. Florida’s unemployment rate is slightly higher than the national average, and rising inflation and gas prices are weighing on Floridians’ morale.
The impact on the real estate market is direct: households are assessing affordability amid persistently high interest rates (6.43% as of early July, according to Freddie Mac), their level of confidence in the market, and whether now is the right time to make a decision.
Buyers need up-to-date mortgage estimates, and sellers need to be clear about their asking prices. In this complex market, guidance from a real estate agent and a broker is essential for making the best decisions. You can find them in the pages of this newspaper. They are trustworthy and speak your language.
N.B. TRANSLATED BY DEEPL
