The year 2026 is looking pretty good, supported by a healthy job market and falling interest rates. In fact, 2025 held up well: limited inventory of single-family homes kept prices steady, and for condos and townhouses, the arrival of new construction, generally in the luxury segment, helped the entire category hold its own. While the year was shaping up to be difficult, prices and sales numbers stabilized in the second quarter of 2025.
For 2026, the impact of lower interest rates is already being felt. The Miami Association of Realtors, as well as Fannie Mae, the semi-governmental mortgage company, estimate that the 30-year rate could drop to 5.8-5.9% by the end of the year. On a $500,000 loan, this translates to a decrease of $100 per month, which is not insignificant on the total. Sellers should feel more motivated to sell and then buy again, which would stimulate the market. This would give buyers more room to negotiate.
It also improves market accessibility, even though it remains expensive: according to a Bankrate study, less than one in 200 single-family homes is affordable for the average Florida household. For the greater Miami metropolitan area, the unemployment rate is up slightly but remains low at 3.6% in September 2025. The job market remains strong overall, and wages are on the rise, driven by the healthcare sector and skilled professionals.
The big news could come from Tallahassee and voters: the legislative session to be held from January 13 to March 13, 2026, is expected to produce a bill aimed at reducing or even eliminating property taxes, which would then likely be put to a vote by Floridians in November 2026. Whatever is decided, the new law would not take effect until 2027, but could give the real estate market a boost well before then.
For condos, the cooling trend is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than in 2025. Reforms adopted last year to relax legislation related to new structural regulations give HOAs more time to organize, which is a relief for many condos. The new condos and luxury apartments’ segment is expected to continue to perform well, meeting demand from newcomers specializing in finance and tech, possibly from New York.
In the rental market, while rents appear to be stabilizing, demand remains strong, with nearly 19 applications for every rental unit in Miami, according to a study by RentCafe. The population continues to grow, and high real estate prices are driving rentals.