Since April 2025 and the latest predictions, it appears that we are heading toward a « normal » hurricane season in Florida, whereas previous predictions had forecast a strong season.
That said, a normal season is still very dangerous and includes hurricanes, as Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami, explains to the Tampa Bay Times: « We’ve become so accustomed to talking of above-average seasons, » he says. « But even an average hurricane season is still quite significant. »
Three factors explain this revision to an average season:
- First, although Gulf temperatures are slightly above normal, July’s winds and rains have cooled them, at least on the surface. Similarly, Atlantic Ocean temperatures have cooled beyond April forecasts, so there are no water temperature anomalies right now, unlike the sea temperatures in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, which were particularly conducive to hurricane formation.
- Wind shear, which is when winds change direction at different altitudes, can break up or create storms. « Vertical wind shear can tilt storms, knocking them off balance and causing them to lose strength, » said Chandler Jenkins, a graduate student at Colorado State University. Now, these winds are acting as a barrier over the Caribbean, a phenomenon that is expected to last for another two weeks or so.
- Trade winds are tropical winds that can cool water temperatures if they are fast or not cool them if they are slow. Right now, Jenkins explains that these winds are slower than expected. This could mean that ocean temperatures will rise as the end of summer approaches.
In summary, experts are forecasting an average and active season with 16 storms (instead of 17); eight hurricanes (instead of nine); and three major hurricanes (compared to four previously). This is no time to let our guard down. We will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of wind shear and trade winds in the coming weeks.