The decisions that Florida’s policymakers and businesses will make in the coming months will be extremely important for supporting and stimulating the Sunshine State’s economic growth in the years ahead.
After a period of rapid post-pandemic growth, Florida is now experiencing a slowdown. Decision-makers are aware of this: if more businesses set up shop in Florida, it will boost the creation of skilled jobs and encourage young people to stay and raise families there. But voters are expressing concern about the rising cost of living, housing, and gas—issues that Florida Democrats are sure to seize upon for the midterm election campaign this coming November.
Slowing Growth
The stakes are high, as growth has slowed, particularly in terms of population. In 2025, according to Census Bureau data, Florida’s population grew by only 0.9%. The proposed property tax cut also complicates matters for the funding of local governments and infrastructure.
For now, the bill aims to increase the exemption amount for primary residences. Specifically, in 2027, homeowners could deduct $150,000 from the value of their property and be taxed only on the remaining amount; then, the deduction would rise to $250,000 in 2028. Newcomers to Florida would receive only a $50,000 exemption, with the exemption amount catching up after four years. Proponents of lowering property taxes are banking on an increase in migration to Florida to offset the loss of tax revenue from current residents.
However, declining immigration, an aging population, and a drop in interstate migration since the pandemic have created uncertainty regarding continued population growth and its impact on the state’s economic growth.
Florida 2030 Roadmap
According to the latest report from July 2026 by the Florida Chamber of Commerce (FCC), Florida has become the world’s 14th-largest economy (up one spot), surpassing Australia and Mexico. However, the state could have a population of 26 million by 2030, and more than one million new jobs are expected to be created to meet this population growth. The FCC (www.flchamber.com) is proposing the Florida 2030 plan to policymakers, which aims to address these projections by focusing on six key areas:
• Enhance Florida’s talent pool to build a more skilled workforce.
• Create good jobs by diversifying the economy, particularly by becoming a hub for startups, investors, technology, and research.
• Prepare the infrastructure of tomorrow, particularly by expanding the diversity of housing options; improving mobility and transportation; enhancing energy and water infrastructure; and ensuring that all Floridians have access to a weather resilience plan.
• Create an ecosystem conducive to business development, including by improving insurance options and implementing a “climate” tax for businesses.
• Improve public services.
• Become leaders in quality of life by aiming for 5th place nationally in well-being, reducing child poverty and crime, and promoting the state’s heritage.
This roadmap would enable Florida to become the world’s 10th-largest economy by 2030, with a target growth rate of 21%. Politicians could draw on it to shape their campaign platforms, particularly candidates running for governor in November.
N.B. TRANSLATED BY DEEPL
