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samedi, novembre 8, 2025

REAL ESTATE: A SELF-CORRECTING MARKET

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After the crazy period of price increases linked to the COVID pandemic (+51% between March 2020 and June 2022) and the resulting demographic influx, the Florida real estate market experienced stagnation in 2024 and 2025 due to increased inventory, particularly in the condo market, and high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation. As we know, the impact of building safety laws and the requirement for HOAs (Home Owners Associations) to build up financial reserves has been particularly noticeable this year. The result: falling prices and a market that favors buyers, who have more offers and choices. According to Florida Realtors, prices for single-family homes fell by -2% (year-over-year in July 2025) and by -6.3% for condos and townhouses across Florida, with significant local variations.

According to an investigation by journalist Bri Buckley for CBS News, the market in Southeast Florida is clearly a buyer’s market. For real estate agent Justin Brooks of the Brooksy Group, sellers are receiving on average 5% less than they expected to get, and properties are taking longer to sell.

However, since August 2025, the inventory of properties for sale has been declining, and the market appears to be self-correcting. The first factor is that many sellers have withdrawn their listings. Those who “had” to sell, often for economic or family reasons (health, inheritance, divorce), have already done so, not necessarily at the price they wanted. The others can afford to wait, and that’s what they’re doing: -10.7% of condos and townhouses being listed for sale in July 2025, and -2.8% of houses, to be put into perspective with the sharp increases at the beginning of the year. Sellers do not want to sacrifice their selling prices and are in no hurry. According to Realtor.com, the highest rate of delisting relative to new listings is in Miami (59), followed by Tampa (33) and Orlando (28).

Another factor is that demand, which has been sluggish in the face of stubborn prices and high interest rates, could pick up in the coming months. The long-awaited rate cut, rumored since August and officially announced on September 17 by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is promising and could signal the Fed’s willingness to go even further down the path of rate cuts before the end of the year. Buyers for whom the market was unaffordable could become active again, and demand could pick up. For now, the quarter-point (0.25%) drop in interest rates remains minimal. Freddie Mac’s average rates as of October 22 are 6.27% for 30-year mortgages and 5.52% for 15-year mortgages.

According to Florida Realtors, in August 2025, pending sales were up 9.9% compared to last August, and up 4.9% for condos/townhouses. With sales expected to rise in the coming months, less inventory for sale, and falling interest rates, the conditions could be right for a revival of the Florida real estate market.

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