The Florida Chamber Foundation (FCF) has just released a report on the outlook for the Florida economy in 2026, including a focus on the real estate market. After a period of calm since 2023, interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 helped stimulate the market, and demand remains strong. 2025 was the first year since 2021 to see an increase in the total number of single-family home sales (+0.9%).
According to the FCF, 2026 is expected to be a more dynamic market than 2025. The median price of homes could increase by +2.5% in 2026. It fell slightly in 2025 for houses (-1.4% to $413,990) and more sharply for condos and townhouses (-4.7% to $305,000).
On the other hand, sales of houses were up in nearly half of all metropolitan areas. The metropolitan areas with the strongest sales growth were The Villages (+15.1%), Homosassa Springs in Citrus County (+9.5%), Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island (+7%), and Punta Gorda (6.8%). Those that saw the sharpest slowdown in sales were Lakeland-Winter Haven (-5.9%) and Sebring (-3.8%).
For condos and townhouses, the number of sales in 2025 fell (-5.9%), and the FCF report does not provide forecasts for this segment. The Lakeland-Winter Haven area suffered greatly last year with a -21.6% drop in sales, as did Ocala (-14.2%) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-11.9%).
The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area saw a -7.5% drop in sales for condos and townhouses. Few metropolitan areas saw growth in this property category, but we should highlight the strong performance of Sebring (+17.6%), Punta Gorda (+8.8%), The Villages (+8.3%), and Gainesville (+6.6%).
Affordability should improve in 2026
While prices remain high, they have actually only increased by +5% since 2023. In fact, the price in December 2025 is almost identical to the price in December 2024. This is due to the large inventory of properties for sale, especially condos.
With regard to home insurance, the state has made numerous efforts to increase competition among insurance companies, thereby lowering policy prices. Numerous legislative reforms in 2022 and 2023 have allowed 17 new insurance companies to enter the Florida market. According to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, nearly 5.9 million homeowners will benefit from lower or stable insurance premiums in 2025-2026, which is rare in Florida.
In addition, the Florida Chamber Foundation forecasts two interest rate cuts in 2026.
Some additional economic forecasts
In 2026, Florida’s gross domestic product could grow between 2.5% and 2.7%. The inflation rate is expected to be around 2.4% to 2.5%.
Job growth is expected to be around 1 to 1.2%, higher than the national average, with an unemployment rate on the rise (between 4.2 and 4.3%), but lower than the national average. The population is expected to grow by around 1.5%, which is a slowdown due to lower immigration, but this still places Florida among the U.S. states with the highest population growth.
Source of graph: Florida Realtors
