Although we are still officially in the middle of hurricane season (June 1 to November 30), the risk of hurricanes and tropical storms decreases significantly as November approaches. Historically, since records began in the mid-1800s, there have only been 16 tropical cyclones within 50 kilometers of the Florida coast in November, the last being Hurricane Kate on November 21, 1985. We can therefore assume that the worst is behind us.
Official forecasts predicted an above-average hurricane season, but so far we have had a “normal” season. Experts are now forecasting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). Only storms Imelda and Gabrielle threatened Florida at the end of September.
Several factors contribute to this relative calm: wind shear in the Caribbean prevents or slows the formation of hurricanes. Trade winds, steady winds blowing from the northeast to the southwest from subtropical regions, are slower than expected, slowing the movement of cyclonic depressions toward the Caribbean and Florida. In addition, Atlantic Ocean temperatures remain high but are not reaching the heat peaks of 2023 and 2024.
To watch: La Niña is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and the event is being closely monitored by the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Also known as the negative phase of ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), La Niña could bring stronger winds pushing waves westward, drier and warmer weather conditions in North America, and more hurricanes. The last similar event ended in 2023; each cycle typically lasts between 9 and 12 months. For the past two years, the world has been oscillating between El Niño and neutrality (La Nada). NOAA indicates that this Niña is expected to be weaker in intensity than the previous one and should return to neutrality in the spring of 2026.
Since October 12, a stationary cold front has arrived in southern Florida, but not without humidity: located at Lake Okeechobee, it is generating significant fog in central Florida, even though there are no winds, as well as scattered rains that are maintaining high humidity levels. This is good news for the drought: 55% of Florida was experiencing extreme drought conditions this year. The summer was particularly devastating, with numerous fires due to the very dry soil this year. More than 1,000 forest fires have been recorded since January 2025, and 133 km2 of vegetation has burned.
The rainy season (May to October) is over, but vigilance must remain high, as at the time of writing (10/28/2025), Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is hitting the coasts of Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba, with four fatalities already reported. Heavy rains and winds in Florida at the end of October, but no direct impact on the Sunshine State is expected.
We are heading for beautiful blue skies and temperatures close to 30-32˚C for November, and an increasingly dry climate.
