Florida enters 2026 with more stability than in 2025, when there was considerable uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new administration in Washington. According to the Florida Chamber Foundation (FCF), a public policy research organization, national economic policy and strategies are known for the coming year, which is a factor in economic stability.
Demographics
The population, estimated at 23.3 million at the end of 2025, is expected to grow by 1.4 to 1.5%, compared to 1.58% in 2025 and 1.72% in 2022. Despite this slowdown, this places Florida among the states with the highest population growth in the United States.
However, Florida has more deaths than births: population growth comes from migration from other US states (+67,600 new arrivals in 2025, half as many as in 2023), and immigration, with 1.3 million in 2025 compared to 2.8 million in 2024, according to the Census Bureau, which does not differentiate between legal and illegal immigration.
Slowdown in Florida’s GDP growth in 2026
Between Q3-2021 and Q3-2023, Florida’s GDP growth was 3.6% higher than the national average. Between Q3-2023 and Q3-2025, this increase was only 0.8% higher, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of growth.
The trend for Florida in 2026 is expected to continue to be one of higher growth than the United States, although the gap will be smaller. According to the FCF, Florida’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow between 2.5% and 2.7%.
Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.5% growth for the country, Consensus Economists 2.1%, while Morgan Stanley and the Congressional Budget Office have not made any predictions.
Household consumption accounts for two-thirds of GDP. Florida’s rapidly growing population in recent years and relatively high average wages, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, contribute to a strong GDP, although the decline in immigration in 2025, and probably in 2026, could have a slowing effect on growth in 2026.
Business investment is another indicator, and Florida has a business-friendly climate, particularly for artificial intelligence, which accounts for most new investment. Government spending is expected to remain stable in 2026 compared to 2025, as will the level of Florida exports.
Inflation rate in 2026 between 2.4% and 2.5%
In 2025, the inflation rate in Florida was 2.7%. In 2026, cooling real estate prices and a mid-year recovery in the labor market should allow consumers to feel less of the effects of inflation, which will still remain fairly strong.
The two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve anticipated by the FCF for 2026 will stimulate the labor market by encouraging business investment and hiring.
Unemployment
Forecasts anticipate a national unemployment rate of 4.4% compared to 4.2-4.3% for the Sunshine State.
In 2025, job growth was only 0.4%, similar to the national average. According to the FCF, the beginning of 2026 could be slow, but should stabilize before the end of the year and outperform the national average for 2026 as a whole.
