Is this the calm before the storm? This year has been particularly mild so far. Let’s remember that the biggest hurricanes in recent years occurred in late September and October (Helen on September 26, 2024; Ian on September 28, 2022; Milton on October 9, 2024), so the season is far from over.
Still, it has been relatively mild so far, despite predictions of a strong season with 13 to 19 storms and three to five major hurricanes. So far, only six tropical storms and two hurricanes—Hurricane Erin in August 2025 and Hurricane Gabrielle on September 21, 2025—have formed, without approaching our shores.
Update on Hurricane Gabrielle
Since September 21, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has rapidly intensified into a Category 3-4 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, with peak winds of 190 km/h. Hurricane Gabrielle is expected to follow an eastward trajectory where it will dissipate, far from our Florida coast. However, beware of rip currents, not only in Florida but all along the U.S. East Coast.
On the other hand, two low-pressure systems are being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center: one of them could develop into a tropical storm around September 25-27. The next names on the list are Humberto and Imelda.
A rather slow start to the season
There have been fewer named storms this year than in 2020 or 2024 so far. The start of the season was marked by drought in June, with intense heat: in Fort Lauderdale, the minimum nighttime temperatures in June were among the highest ever recorded, with a record high of 81°F (27.2°C), which explains the persistent feeling of heat at night.
Rainfall deficits were also felt in July in southeastern Florida.
Caution: conditions are ripe
Experts indicate that the combination of current conditions could be explosive for the end of the hurricane season: there is a marine heatwave in Florida and the Caribbean that is raising ocean surface temperatures. This creates moisture in the air and can fuel the formation of storms and hurricanes.
Even at night, atmospheric temperatures remain high for the season, especially in coastal areas.
Humidity is high, and on September 21, Fort Lauderdale recorded a peak humidity of 100% during the day, with a daily average of 89%.
The ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) is neutral: there is no El Niño or El Niña, so water and atmospheric temperatures in the equatorial zone are normal and do not particularly influence the hurricane season in Florida. On the other hand, wind shear is currently weak, although it is very useful for dispersing convection at the heart of hurricanes. Its absence is therefore a dangerous condition at this time.
So despite a rather calm start to the season, these indicators suggest that the conditions are right for the development of dangerous weather events.
